Société de recherche indépendante en macro-économie et stratégie d’investissement

In our view, Powell and the Fed are the main endogenous market risk for the next few months. In his last two announcements (statement of 1 February following the FOMC meeting and speech at the Economic Club of Washington on 7 February), Powell moved away from attempting to guide market expectations, as he did last year. He wanted to show that, over the next few months, the Fed’s policy will be above all pragmatic and very data dependent. This is proof that he is a little dumfounded in the face of the current situation and uncertain about the quality of its own expectations.