Fundamental analysis

Our fundamental analysis since the beginning of 2009

Since the beginning of 2009, the main lines of our analysis have by and large been validated by facts:

 

  • Global economic recovery in 2009
  • Outperformance of the US vs Europe (from 2009)
  • The US economy’s capacity to generate some 2% annual GDP growth
  • The eurozone fall into recession (autumn 2011)
  • The absence of implosion of the eurozone (despite numerous governance failures, which we stressed repeatedly)
  • The ‘long stagnation’ scenario in the eurozone 
  • France’s continued decadence 
  • China’s structural slowdown
  • The WTO’s capacity to reduce the European systemic risk (summer 2012)
  • The absence of inflationary risk despite the extraordinary swelling of central banks’ balance sheets in the rich world
  • Survival of the bubble economy

 

Our one regret:

 

  • We overestimated the potential of the Indian and Brazilian economies 

 

 

Contact us

Our strategist economists are at your disposal

+33 1 53 42 65 33 socofi@socofi.com

Informations

France's leading independent research firm in macroeconomics and investment strategy.